Towards African Self-Reliance: AFCFTA, Agenda 2063, And Overcoming Challenges
Introduction
Following the balanced evaluation in Article 8 of the advantages and disadvantages associated with African engagements with BRICS and the West—where opportunities for diversification were weighed against risks of dependency—this ninth instalment turns to pathways for African self-reliance. As global multipolarity intensifies, with BRICS’ de-dollarisation efforts gaining momentum post the 2025 Rio Summit and Western tariffs under the second Trump administration averaging 27% by October 2025, African states are increasingly prioritising internal mechanisms to assert sovereignty and drive sustainable development. Central to this are the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and Agenda 2063, frameworks designed to foster intra-continental integration, industrialisation, and resilience.
From an African perspective, these initiatives represent a strategic pivot towards agency, enabling the continent to transform external dependencies into complementary partnerships. Drawing on reports from the African Union (AU), the 2025 Africa Integration Report, World Bank analyses, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), this article examines the composition, progress, and challenges of AfCFTA and Agenda 2063. It underscores how these tools can mitigate the geopolitical entanglements outlined in Articles 4 and 5, while building on regional alignments in Article 7 to promote equitable growth. This exploration concludes Phase 3, preparing for ongoing case studies in Phase 4.
The African Continental Free Trade Area: Composition, Objectives, and Evolution
Launched in 2018 and operational since January 2021, AfCFTA establishes the world’s largest free trade area by number of countries, encompassing 55 AU member states and covering 1.3-billion people with a combined GDP of USD 3.4-trillion as of 2025. Its composition includes eight Regional Economic Communities (RECs) such as SADC, ECOWAS, and the East African Community (EAC), serving as building blocks for continental integration. The agreement aims to eliminate tariffs on 90% of goods, harmonise trade rules, and facilitate services, investment, and intellectual property protocols, projecting an increase in intra-African trade from 18% in 2020 to 52% by 2045.
AfCFTA’s evolution reflects Africa’s historical quest for unity, echoing the Organisation of African Unity’s (OAU) 1980 Lagos Plan of Action, which sought self-reliant development amid colonial legacies discussed in Article 3. By October 2025, 47 states have ratified the agreement, with Eritrea as the sole holdout. Key milestones include the 2023 Guided Trade Initiative, enabling pilot shipments among 31 countries, and the 2025 digital trade protocol, addressing e-commerce amid global tech rivalries. From an African lens, AfCFTA counters the economic stakes in Article 4 by promoting value-added exports, reducing reliance on raw commodity sales to BRICS or Western markets.
Progress under AfCFTA has been tangible: intra-African trade reached 25% by mid-2025, driven by sectors like agro-processing and pharmaceuticals. For instance, Kenya’s exports to South Africa increased by 15% in 2024–2025, supported by harmonised standards. The AfCFTA Secretariat, based in Accra, has facilitated dispute resolution mechanisms, resolving 12 trade barriers in 2025 alone. Integration with Agenda 2063 amplifies these gains, aligning trade liberalisation with broader developmental goals.
Agenda 2063: Africa’s Blueprint for Transformation
Adopted in 2013 to mark the OAU/AU’s 50th anniversary, Agenda 2063 envisions “an integrated, prosperous, and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens.” Structured around seven aspirations—including inclusive growth, good governance, and pan-Africanism—it is implemented through ten-year plans, with the second (2024–2033) emphasising resilience post-COVID-19 and amid climate challenges. By 2025, flagship projects include the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), connecting 35 states, and the African Commodity Strategy, targeting value addition in minerals where Africa holds 30% of global reserves.
The agenda’s evolution builds on post-independence efforts, addressing colonial-era fragmentations by prioritising infrastructure like the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), which has mobilised USD 100-billion for cross-border projects by 2025. African-centric objectives focus on sovereignty: the 2025 foresight report integrates climate adaptation, projecting a reduction in vulnerability through renewable energy targets. Linkages with AfCFTA are evident in shared goals, such as boosting manufacturing’s GDP share from 10% to 25% by 2033.
Achievements to Date: Building Momentum for Self-Reliance
Combined, AfCFTA and Agenda 2063 have advanced African self-reliance across multiple dimensions. Economically, intra-continental FDI rose 20% in 2024–2025, with investments in manufacturing hubs like Ethiopia’s industrial parks. Politically, the AU’s Peace Fund, funded 35% by member states by 2025, supports African-led peacekeeping, reducing dependency on Western or BRICS interventions noted in Article 5. Strategically, initiatives like the African Vaccine Manufacturing Accelerator aim for 60% local production by 2040, addressing health sovereignty amid global supply disruptions.
Regional examples illustrate progress: SADC’s industrialisation roadmap, aligned with Agenda 2063, has enhanced value chains in mining, while ECOWAS’ common external tariff under AfCFTA has streamlined trade despite AES rifts from Article 7. The 2025 Africa Integration Report notes a 12% increase in cross-border infrastructure, including the Grand Inga Dam project, potentially powering 40% of the continent.
These advancements enable Africa to navigate global blocs pragmatically: AfCFTA’s rules of origin mitigate tariff impacts from the US’ 27% average rates, while Agenda 2063’s innovation hubs attract BRICS technology transfers without ceding control.
Challenges to Self-Reliance: Funding, Governance, and Beyond
Despite progress, significant hurdles impede full realisation. Funding remains a primary challenge: AfCFTA requires USD 300-billion annually for infrastructure, yet domestic mobilisation covers only 60%, per World Bank estimates. External dependencies persist, with 40% of financing from Western institutions like the EU’s Global Gateway (EUR 150-billion by 2025) or BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB, disbursing USD 7-billion to Africa in 2025). Debt burdens, exacerbated by commodity volatility, strain budgets—African debt service reached USD 100-billion in 2025, diverting resources from Agenda 2063 priorities.
Governance issues compound this: varying regulatory frameworks across RECs delay harmonisation, with only 28% of AfCFTA protocols fully implemented by October 2025. Corruption and weak institutions, as highlighted in the AU’s 2025 Governance Report, erode trust, while political instability in regions like the Sahel hinders integration. Infrastructure deficits—Africa needs USD 170-billion yearly for transport and energy—exacerbate non-tariff barriers, such as border delays costing USD 5-billion annually.
Other challenges include climate change, projected to reduce GDP by 2–5% by 2030, and digital divides limiting e-commerce under AfCFTA. Gender and youth inclusion lag: women-led enterprises face 15% higher trade barriers, per UN Women data, while youth unemployment at 60% undermines Agenda 2063’s demographic dividend.
Strategies for Overcoming Challenges
African-led strategies are emerging to address these. For funding, the AU’s 0.2% import levy, implemented by 25 states by 2025, generates USD 3-billion annually, reducing reliance on external aid. Public-private partnerships, such as AfCFTA’s Investment Protocol, attract intra-African capital, with South Africa’s USD 1-billion pledge in 2025. Debt restructuring, informed by BRICS models from Article 8, includes local currency bonds to counter de-dollarisation risks.
Governance reforms involve capacity-building: the AU’s African Peer Review Mechanism has reviewed 45 states by 2025, promoting transparency. Digital tools, like the AfCFTA app for trade facilitation, streamline processes, while REC coordination—exemplified by SADC-ECOWAS memoranda—harmonises standards.
To tackle infrastructure, PIDA’s 2025–2030 phase prioritises green projects, leveraging Western sustainability funds and BRICS’ BRI expertise without over-dependence. Climate adaptation integrates via Agenda 2063’s resilience pillar, with initiatives like the Great Green Wall expanding to 8,000 km by 2025. Inclusion efforts include youth entrepreneurship funds and gender quotas in trade policies.
Comparative Analysis
The following table summarises key elements of AfCFTA and Agenda 2063, highlighting synergies and challenges:
Implications for Navigating Global Blocs
These frameworks empower Africa to engage BRICS and the West on equal terms, transforming the pros and cons from Article 8 into leveraged opportunities. AfCFTA’s scale attracts FDI—projected at USD 100-billion by 2030—while Agenda 2063’s focus on value addition reduces raw export vulnerabilities amid US tariffs. Regional bodies like the AU amplify collective bargaining, as in G20 advocacy for debt relief.
However, challenges risk perpetuating fragmentations: without addressing funding, external influences could dominate, echoing intra-bloc tensions in Article 2. Prioritising self-reliance fosters multipolarity, where Africa emerges as a unified actor.
Conclusion
AfCFTA and Agenda 2063 embody Africa’s commitment to self-reliance, offering structured pathways to overcome historical dependencies and contemporary geopolitical pressures. Through progress in trade integration and governance reforms, these initiatives mitigate challenges like funding and infrastructure deficits, enhancing sovereignty. Building on the series’ analyses—from bloc definitions in Article 1 to alignments in Articles 6 and 7—this mosaic underscores pragmatic diversification. As Phase 4 commences with case studies, ongoing monitoring of developments, such as AfCFTA’s 2026 protocols, will further illuminate Africa’s trajectory towards equitable prosperity.
